November 4th, 2009

Alex explains Bayes' rule

More tales from the apparently Frozen Boreal Wasteland:

Alex oniugnip: *drawing a diagram* So, P(H) is the probability that it's a hot day, and P(I) is the probability that you see someone eating ice cream.
Lindsey: And P(I|H) is the probability that you see someone eating ice cream...
Alex: ...given that it's a hot day.
Lindsey: *squinting* Okay. Let's say P(H) is, oh, I dunno, .1?
Alex: Well, around here.

It was 61 degrees today, by the way. Barely fall weather at all. I actually got sweaty raking leaves in the yard.

(Previously.)